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:	post by xmikex at 2009-11-30 13:29:33

This game has a lot more to do with defense than people will give it credit for, but I think that's something that will eventually favor the Pats.

Check it. The Saints have the #1 defensive passer rating in the league by a long shot (57.83), and they're also the #2 team in bringing 5 or more man rushes in passing downs. They get away with this by scoring fast, and forcing opposing teams into must pass situations. This plays perfectly into the hands of the Patriots who hate to run the football anyways. If the Saints plan on blitzing their safeties at all they'd better plan on Welker and Moss eating them up for quick yardage all day.

If I'm Sean Payton I'm doubling Randy Moss with Roman Harper all night. Harper is fast and has crazy good coverage skills and should put a real damper on the Pats deep game, which is fine with me. Brady's downfield accuracy still isn't there yet, and I'd rather not watch them squander downs on it too much.

On the flip side of it, can you say that the Saints have faced a defense like the Pats all year? They haven't seen a super physical safety pair like Merriweather and McGowan all season. Safety play and knocking balls loose are going to be critical against a guy like Brees who can spread the ball around. I think Bodden is going to be out to smack Marques Colston in the mouth. Belichick knows this better than anyone. The way to beat a pass oriented offense like this is to out physical them, and I love the Patriots chances there.

If the Saints don't get Jabari Greer on the field then honestly, who else scares you as far as their corners go? Randall Gay? Gay is only as good as the players around him, and if the Saints have to goto their depth chart to put a lid on the Pats then Brady is going to chew them up.

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