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: post by ArrowHeadNLI at 2011-05-09 12:42:43
ShadowSD said[orig][quote]
arilliusbm said[orig][quote]
The simplest alternate explanation to a conspiracy theory is usually incompetence. When people say, “Why did these things happen?” and then point to a series of seemingly implausible events, it’s usually because the government messed up. The right arm didn’t know what the left arm was doing. Government is made of human beings. They are remarkably ordinary in their ability to make mistakes.

There is also a certain amount of life which is luck, chance, coincidence and happenstance. You can’t always divine some larger pattern from the fact that two events seem related or happened in the same month. Often it is just chance.


Zakaria has it exactly right.

I also like to put it this way: if a conspiracy theory is far more complex than the standard explanation it's meant to replace - and it's a standard explanation which originally only came into question because it seemed too complex to believe - it's obviously time to bail on the conspiracy theory.



I've tried the occam's razor argument. The typical conspiracy fan's rebuttal is that the answers that are "too simple" are the ones most in need of questioning, since it's clearly being fed to us to shut us up.

I saw a great one the other day. It was a lady,. doing an interview in the desert. In the background, all of a sudden, a freaking ALIEN MONSTER goes ambling by. They show it over and over in slow mo. So I adjust the contrast on my monitor and what is the monster? A dude like a mile in the background, WALKING HIS DOG.



bennyhillifier

I pointed this out to the conspiracy nut person, and they honest to god replied with "that's what they WANT you to believe!"

/facepalm


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